Market Signal

Live S&P 500 · FMP
Simple
Expert

Last updated: 2026-03-23· Median EPS: $5.74· P/E Dispersion: 2.42

GO

All signals are green. The market looks strong.

Earnings growing, bonds calm, valuations reasonable. Lean in.

Confidence67%
🏛️

Congressional Insight

Contradicts

Congressional net selling. Contradicts BULLISH thesis.

Updated: 3/19/2026

Your Play
BULLISH
Buy SPY Calls
SPY $662 CALLS
Expires 2026-06-19 (88 days)
Risk
$2,250
Reward
$6,750
Ratio
1:3
Risk Budget (1.9% of bankroll)$971

1 contract ($2,250) exceeds your risk budget. Consider a larger bankroll or wait for a cheaper entry.

Contracts1
Est. Premium$22.50 / share
Cost per Contract$2,250
Break-even & estimated scenarios
Break-Even
SPY needs to hit $685 by expiry to break even
Estimated P&L at midpoint
SPY $662 (at strike)~-$237 (-11%)
SPY $685 (break-even)~+$1,197 (+53%)
SPY $707 (2x move)~+$2,984 (+133%)
Max loss: $2,250 (the premium you paid)

Estimates use Black-Scholes with VIX as IV proxy. Real option IV varies by strike (smile/skew) — prices may differ from market quotes.

Play Money Bankroll$50,000
$10k$500k
WTF is a call option?

A call option gives you the right to buy SPY at a set price (the strike) before a deadline (the expiry). You pay a small premium upfront — that's your max loss. If SPY goes up past your strike, the option gains value fast. You can sell it for a profit without ever buying the shares. If SPY stays flat or drops, you lose the premium — that's it.

This is play money gambling. You can lose 100% of your bet. Options expire worthless more often than not. This is a hypothetical educational play based on macro signals — not personalized financial advice. Only risk money you can afford to lose completely.

Why this signal?

💼Company Earnings

Companies are making money

When the median S&P 500 company is profitable and growing, hiring continues and the economy expands. This is the foundation.

🛡️Bond Market Mood

Bond traders are relaxed

Tight credit spreads mean bond investors see low risk. The bond market is the smartest room in finance — when they're calm, that's a good sign.

⚖️Stock Valuations

Maximum fear is priced in — contrarian opportunity

When the valuation gap hits extreme levels, historically it's been one of the best times to buy. Everyone's panicking, but the data says lean in.

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